The rising goldprice creates hard times for many watches -- for watches made of gold. Indeed, the most endangered watches these days with a goldprice of >USD4'200 per oz are the goldwatches -- the heavy ones from the 1960s and 1970s, especially. And especially the ones in the medium segment: Eterna, IWC, Longines, Omegas etc.
These will be smelted in masses as the market is currently not paying the prices necessary to lure them out of most dealers inventory in a different and more sustainable way. So existent numbers will decrease significantly now and in future. That said, I am sure we will see a completely different demand by collectors in 3y+ -- with such pieces being sought-after and the comparable steel-watches in much lower demand. Reason will be twofold: the fundamentally changed supply-structure due to the elimination of a significant share of these pieces and on the other side the increased demand due to the higher goldprice (Veblen-good) as a spicy note.
I recommend to read the first three parts of this small series, that is the entry-point for a serious research of the single most relevant factor in horological-history -- the price of gold. Indeed, I am sure this field is not only fruitful in the sense of gaining insights and easier explanations of historical trends & events but also enables to understand future-trends and on top: it is to my knowledge almost a greenfield;
* Ad 2025-10-21: * The topic seems to get some attention but my point is not always understood correctly. A Patek ref1518 is completely irrelevant for these thoughts -- the few grams of gold are not in any relevant relation to its price and thus the goldprice has no measurable influence at all. This is so trivial that even mentioning it could be considered an insult to the reader. And also, I am aware that not all goldwatches are horological relevant -- indeed most are not. But this simple truism hides the fact that the other way around it becomes more interesting: almost any horological relevant / important watch was (first) made in gold.
Next to this, it is important to know: goldwatches were approx 3 to 4 times as expensive as the entry-model made in steel, making them per se rarer than their steely counterparts. Besides that, gold is softer and is outworn much faster than steel -- not speaking about the type of people wearing the one or the other material. And all that is crowned by the fact that an important but currently not sought after goldwatch in the hand of an amateur or even in the hand of an ignorant professional is highly endangered.