I am sure the new year 2026 holds a lot of surprises and eventually some very positive ones -- I expect:

• rising prices in tangible assets at all and some watches especially;
• the 2026 Winner Brand: Seiko;
• the 2026 Loser Brand: Rolex;
• the 2026 Winning Segments in Watches: Gold & Electronic & Ladies & Pocketwatches;
• the 2026 Losing Segments in Watches: Mechanical Complications & Stone Dials;

Overall it is a continuing shift from brand-names and just-indicated quality & artificial scarcity to inherent, visible and real quality. A shift from hype to common-sense. A shift from steel to gold. A shift from signaling herd-affiliation to presentation of independence and personality.

Let me explain in short: the already rising goldprice makes it more desirable and if we see an ongoing increase throughout 2026, then I am sure we will see a da-capo of the 1970s in watches -- I have written details about this in the (imo) important and fundamental blog-posts #goldAndWatches (*klikk) and I suggest to read it.

Why will Rolex lose attention? There are several reasons and the most obvious are the inconsistencies & double standards (*klikk) on the one side of the companies actions and low innovations on the other (*klikk); fakes and dubious watches that are hardly to differentiate from the original; and this meets filled and over-redundant portfolios... what could go wrong here? That does not mean that Rolex is a bad brand or doing anything worse than the competition but that is not enough to hold that undisputed distanced top-position. Besides this there is almost no room for positive surprises but a lot for negative... And how all this compares to Seiko is left to the reader.

Regarding the winning segments: About the use and appreciation of gold as a material it was written before and next to this I am quite sure we will see several releases of new electronic (quartz: *klikk) movements by top-brands this year. Citizen released the tuningfork cal314 via Accutron (*klikk) and it already received a lot of attention.

Ladieswatches (*klikk): We have seen a blast in ladieswatches already in the late auctions (*klikk) and of course: a rare Patek made in single-digits is a rare Patek made in single-digits no matter whether a men- or ladies-model. It might be discounted by some percent vs the men-models as the majority of collectors (men) dont wear it, sure. But there is no argument against collecting it (ie. putting it in a context, preserving and carrying to the future;) and the price of such an artefact cannot be a tenth of a comparable men-model or even less. Besides this: ladieswatches usually come without un-necessary complications and thats not a miss.

Pocketwatches: It is the same for pocketwatches: *klikk. These are highly collectible items. Rare & horological relevant and a bit overlooked and priced not with a discount but just fractions of the wristwatches. And even more, they are very-wearable and you dont need a vest and Dandy-look for these to work.