Switzerland is celebrating the "negotiation" of 39%-taxation of Swiss goods imported to the USA down to 15% and feels like a winner. Who am I to crash a party or fill the wine up with water? No, but let me repeat what I already mentioned to the EU's "negotiation-success" (here: *klikk).

*"The risk the EU has taken for the next three years, just to "negotiate" down the news-headline tax-rate from 30 to "just" 15% becomes obvious and scary when just four facts are taken into account:

• the price for USD750 billions in LNG-purchases is not specified: this is not a purchase but a poll-tax;
• the price and details for USD40 billions in "AI chip"-purchases is not specified: this is not a purchase but a poll-tax;
• the details for the USD600 billions investment in the USA is not specified: this is not an investment but a poll-tax;
• on top: the USD-price is not specified;

So, the total sum in fire here is approx USD1'400 billions, which equals almost the volume of goods exported from EU to USA in these three years (USD1'700 billions). So that means, if the goods received from the USA (chips, LNG, investment) are finally priced 25% above market- / fair-value, then the taxation of the EU-exports is effectively higher than 39%... I am taking bets here."*

Hui, and this was the "successful" negotiation of the EU... I was sure Switzerland would do better, but alas...

• instead of purchases like the EU it is investments that Switzerland had to agree to; by design it is not possible in Switzerland that such purchases / investments are contracted by the top-level government -- a misunderstanding that upset the US in the first round of this debate, because Trump expected to address the issue to Ms Keller-Suter and she pours the cornucopia over the USA like Ms von der Leyen (EU) -- and so it is instead investments of their big power-house companies (pharma, machinery & industry, metal-refinery);
• investments of USD200 billion that match almost exactly the sum of exports of CH to US in this 3y period -- same like the EU USD1'400 of blanko-purchases matches the exports of the EU to US in this 3y;
• with these investments there will be a knowledge- and IP-transfer and there will be a move of people -- rare high value-experts with above-average salaries; see the addendum (page bottom) here: *klikk;
• I am sure we will see much lower exports from CH to the US in 3y -- permanently and not temporarily, because the USA is doing these things at home; a very hefty price for short-term pain-relief;
• sure, neither the "stars of negiation" (Mr Parmelin), nor the "investors" (CEOs of corporations), nor the high potentials moving, nor the Swiss farmers paying the price of an now opened meat-market, nor the jobless in CH (set-off in a factory moving to the US) are the same group of people -- and so it is as usual in politics: try to make others pay for what YOU want;
• it might be very interesting to see the details of the investments -- who is doing which sum and what kind of "side-payments" (subsidies, tax-breaks?) are agreed to;

Overall, I can see big winning on the US-side and overall a very successful strategy but a lot of risks and losses on the other sides (EU, CH). Typical for their politics, it is always an attempt to make others pay for one's own interests and even more it is a miss to explore and open alternatives to the US-market.