Prices, Where Do You Go?

Friday, November 5, 2021

With auction season in front of us, everybody asks, where are the prices going to? And we answer with strong confidence ... We simply don't know. :-)

But no matter what we see in the coming weeks, there are some aspects that will probably move prices of tangible assets further north in the medium term.

  • They are lagging financial assets, because they are not directly tied to ultra-low interest rates and the connex is existent but not obviously visible and direct as in assets paying dividends or yields. So, they are always a little late.

  • They are outside the financial system that is... lets say, unstable. Especially after the decades long experiments and interventions of central bank planners and bureaucrats. And another aspect might induce and accelerate the shift from financial to tangible assets: if we see rising interest rates in the coming years, due to inflation getting much higher than what bureaucrats feel comfortable with, then this will move money out of financial assets -- and it needs another harbour.

  • People are in search of scarce items, especially as money is no longer the central scarcity for more and more people. So, what we see is just to some extend the rise in prices in watches and objects of art and scarce objects at all. But the other equally relevant aspect that "pushes" prices upwards is the devaluation of money in general -- in all currencies equally --, that makes prices appear rising, while in fact the scale is continuously devalued.

Anyway, we now know that we don't know much at all. And it comes down to the question: What determines the value of money.

Now, thats something we know, but lets talk that later. Maybe.